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Why Most People Overestimate Trump’s Chances of Winning Today’s Presidential Election
Though Biden is far ahead in the polls, many think Trump has a good shot today. He doesn’t. Here’s why so many people are probably wrong.
Poll after poll suggests that Donald Trump is about to lose the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election. Cutting right to the chase, polls suggest that Trump is going to lose in most of the swing states that he narrowly won in 2016. For example, polls show that Trump has only the teensiest chance of winning Michigan. He is also way behind in Wisconsin. As of October 29, just five days before the election — even Georgia and Texas were toss-ups. But if Trump is so far behind, why are so many Americans, including many Biden supporters, convinced that Trump has a decent chance to be re-elected?
The answer is that when we predict the future, we rely on a handful of intuitive rules of thumb for making snap judgments. These rules tend to overweight the past rather than the present. They also overweight what is obvious to the naked eye rather than what is clear only to pollsters and statisticians. With this in mind, consider four judgmental rules of thumb (four heuristics or mental shortcuts) and how each rule of thumb nudges many people into believing Trump will pull off another victory.
