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Why Referees and Weather Forecasters Are Much Better than You Think
You may be falling prey to the hindsight bias
Have you ever seen a referee blow a call that cost your favorite sports team a big win? I certainly have. So, you and I are probably in the same boat. But that doesn’t mean we’re on the same page. If you’re like most other people on planet earth, you think most referees suck at their jobs. But they don’t. They’re actually very good at them. Allow me to explain. But be patient. I need to explain two separate facts about the human mind — to clarify why referees are much better at their jobs than most people think.
Before I argue that you’re wrong about referees, allow me to compliment you on your knowledge of trivia. I hope you’ll agree that: (a) many people feel nauseous when they spin around too much, (b) Abe Lincoln was the 15th U.S. President, and (c) pheromones are a type of hormone. Speaking of honest Abe, please be honest. How many of these three things did you know already? If you think you already knew at least one of these three things, I have bad news. You didn’t know any of them. I know that because none of them are true. People can feel nauseated, but it is only things (like vomit or poison gas) that are nauseous. If you are nauseous, then you make others want to puke. Further, Abe Lincoln was the 16th President, and…
